David Emery OnlineWhat's wrong with Apple?
4 April 2007
There’s nothing wrong with Apple, I hear you cry!
Right now you might be right, but they’ve got a very rocky road ahead of them, most of which hinges on their new wunder-product, the iPhone. Think of today’s post as a bit of a reality check.
iPods, as it stands today, are a great success but we’re rapidly reaching the point of saturation; there’s only going to be a finite number of people in the world that want an iPod, and how many of them don’t have one yet. This would be fine, as Apple has traditionally updated the iPod often to keep up with fashion and to keep them “fresh”, but they now have a slightly tricky problem:
The iPhone.
Firstly, the iPhone doesn’t replace the iPod in any way, as it’s far more expensive, tied into a contract and has limited storage space (although most people use iPod Nanos of similar size). Now, the iPod – specifically the full size video iPod – is well overdue for an update, and it’s bound to use some of the same technology as the iPhone, including the multi-touch display. Exactly how many features it gets, though, is a pretty tricky issue – is it an iPhone minus the actual phone bit? Is it just the “iPod” bit of the iPhone, with none of the WiFi enabled web stuff?
The main problem, though, is not its eventual specifications, it’s the fact that Apple simply can’t launch it any time soon as it’ll take all the attention away from the iPhone. So, we’re not going to see a new iPod until – at the earliest – late August, which means sales will probably take in the mean time.
Of course, that’s all slightly academic if the iPhone sells well, which it could well do, but its success is by no means assured, especially outside of the US where it’s launching late, and without features (3G) that are commonplace. It’s also worth noting that with the slow death of DRM, Apple is also loosing its lock-in over digital music which doesn’t help matters going forward – sure, they dominate the market, but the digital music war is by no means won.
On the other side of Apple’s business, the Mac, there are similar issues looming on the horizon.
First up is Mac OS X 10.5, which is the first version of Mac OS X to up against a credible competitor in the form of Windows Vista. That’s not to say that Vista is better the Mac OS – I think 10.4 beats it hands down – but it’s now a much more realistic proposition, which is exactly what Apple didn’t need right now. There are many rumours going around about possible “secret” features coming in 10.5, including a whole new interface, and whatever Apple has up their sleeve had better be good, lest they loose their positive momentum.
On the hardware front, it’s quite obvious that Apple’s hardware developers have been focusing elsewhere (*cough* iPhone cough Apple TV) as we’ve only had one actually new case design – the MacBook – since the release of the original Mac Mini in January 2005, and that was hardly a radical leap forward. All the other cases – the MacPro, the iMac and the MacBook Pro – are simple tweaks on old designs, all dating from 2003/2004.
While the specifications have certainly improved, Apple seem to have really lost their edge when it comes to computer design.
Hopefully they can pull it all together – release an amazing version of OS X, hit a home run with the iPhone while not loosing iPod sales and start making amazing computers again – but there’s a tricky path looming ahead for Apple.